Program 360 · Program Alpha
Community Skills Development Critical AI status: At Risk
Directorate of Enterprise & Skills · Vocational and digital-skills training cohorts for working-age residents, with job-placement follow-up.
Budget
CU 184.0M
FY 2026
Actual spending
CU 161.9M
YTD September
Utilization
88%
plan 75% YTD
Output
82%
of annual target
Outcome
61%
−14 ppvs trajectory
Beneficiaries
12.5K
of 16.0K target
Timeline
Minor delay
3 weeks variance
AI Program Diagnosis
AI-generated insightRequires management review“Outcome achievement is 14 percentage points below the expected trajectory while 88% of budget has been utilized.”
Potential contributing factors (estimated)
Low participant completion38%
Course completion 71% vs 85% design assumption; drop-off concentrated in weeks 3–5.
Regional implementation differences27%
North and Central regions show outcome rates 18–22% below East region with similar spend per participant.
Delayed procurement20%
Two provider contracts signed 7 weeks late, compressing Q3 cohorts.
Low follow-up engagement15%
Only 44% of graduates reached for 3-month placement follow-up.
78% · Medium
Recommended management investigation / actions
- 1Review completion-support measures (stipend timing, flexible schedules) for cohorts in North and Central regions.
- 2Commission a rapid review of East region delivery model for replication.
- 3Introduce structured 30/90-day follow-up with employer matching.
- 4Re-phase Q4 disbursement to be conditional on completion milestones.
REC-2026-011 · Commission a completion-support review and structured graduate follow-up for Community Skills Development.
Under Review
Spending: plan vs actual
Cumulative, CU millions
Actual spendingLinear plan
Performance trend: output & outcome
Cumulative % of annual target vs expected outcome trajectory
OutputOutcomeExpected outcome
Results chain
Example: Community Skills Development
INPUT
Budget
Budget CU 184M · 46 training providers
88% utilized
ACTIVITY
Delivery
Training cohorts delivered (412 of 480 planned)
Minor delay
OUTPUT
Results delivered
Citizens trained & certified (12,480)
82% of target
OUTCOME
Change for citizens
Employment or business improvement within 6 months
61% (trajectory 75%)
IMPACT
Long-term public value
Higher household income & regional productivity
Measured annually
Regional distribution
Outcome achievement by region (%) · program average shown as reference
| Region | Budget | Spent | Utilization | Outcome | Beneficiaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | CU 61.3M | CU 53.2M | 87% | 56% | 3,929 |
| East | CU 28.3M | CU 25.1M | 89% | 72% | 1,756 |
| West | CU 35.0M | CU 30.6M | 87% | 64% | 2,136 |
| North | CU 22.7M | CU 19.0M | 84% | 50% | 1,568 |
| South | CU 21.2M | CU 18.4M | 87% | 55% | 1,373 |
| Coastal | CU 15.5M | CU 13.7M | 88% | 67% | 1,053 |
Risk indicators
Rule-based thresholds
Outcome vs trajectory-14 pp
Spend vs outcome gap27 pp
Schedule variance3 weeks
Beneficiary coverage78% of annual target
Timeline: Jan–Dec 2026 · reporting through September